Pillar, the AI-powered risk management platform for the physical economy, Kalshi, the next-generation derivatives exchange, and Susquehanna Predictions, a leading market maker and liquidity provider, today announced the completion of a landmark tungsten price hedge using event contracts on Kalshi.

Pillar hedged tungsten exposure on behalf of an Ohio-based metals distributor using Kalshi event contracts tied to the SMM CIF Rotterdam benchmark for ammonium paratungstate (“APT”). Susquehanna Predictions helped structure and price the transaction and provided the institutional-scale liquidity required to execute it.

A metal caught in a geopolitical squeeze

Tungsten is the hardest-working metal most people have never thought about. It has the highest melting point of any element and is nearly as dense as gold, making it irreplaceable in armor-piercing munitions, armor plating, jet engines, carbide cutting tools, and semiconductor manufacturing.

Export restrictions and production constraints have tightened availability across the global tungsten market. The United States has no active domestic tungsten mine production. Meanwhile, expanded Defense Department procurement restrictions taking effect in 2027 will further narrow the pool of eligible sources for certain tungsten materials used in defense applications, increasing competition for available supply as demand grows.

The result is one of the most dramatic commodity moves in modern history. APT prices have risen more than 500% as supply constraints have intensified, and this spring they jumped as much as 94% in six weeks. For a business that buys or sells tungsten, a swing like that can erase the margin on a contract between the day it is signed and the day it ships. This first-of-its-kind commercial tungsten price hedge, executed through an event contract market on Kalshi, provides businesses with a new way to manage volatility within a critical U.S. mineral supply chain.

A market that didn’t exist, built for a risk that traditional tools couldn’t fully hedge

Unlike oil, gold, or copper, tungsten has never had a listed futures market. Companies exposed to its price movements have had limited tools to hedge that risk, leaving manufacturers and suppliers to absorb extraordinary volatility or pass it through to customers.

Pillar, Kalshi, and Susquehanna Predictions worked together to build the new market around the SMM CIF Rotterdam APT benchmark. Pillar translated the client’s physical exposure into a hedging strategy, Kalshi listed a contract settling on December 17, 2026, and Susquehanna Predictions helped structure and price the market and provided liquidity for the transaction. The market trades on an open, public order book; prices are set by participants, and Kalshi does not take either side of any trade.

Pillar, founded in 2023 by former Barclays and Coinbase employees and backed by Andreessen Horowitz, has processed more than $1 billion in risk for refiners, miners, scrap dealers, and manufacturers. Its platform turns a client’s physical transactions into precise hedges and manages them from execution through accounting. Kalshi now gives Pillar the ability to serve a new category of clients: businesses whose most important input has never had a market at all.

“America’s greatest competitive advantage has always been its financial markets and its ability to engineer innovative financial products. At Pillar, we’re putting that strength to work to level the playing field in the global race for critical natural resources – giving American businesses the financial tools to compete, secure their supply chains, and thrive in an increasingly volatile world,” said Harsha Ramesh, CEO at Pillar.

“This transaction is another example of prediction markets addressing a real institutional need,” said Nick Volbi, Head of Institutional at Susquehanna Predictions. “By structuring, pricing, and trading contracts around real-world exposures, we are demonstrating how these markets can help small businesses and large institutions manage risks they face every day.”

“Some of the most important risks in the American economy have never had a market. Not because no one needed one, but because no one built one. That’s what changed here. Tungsten is the first, and there’s a long list behind it,” said Nicolas Hull, Director of Business Development at Kalshi.

About Pillar

Pillar is the new-age hedging desk for the world. Powered by AI and modern financial engineering, Pillar enables businesses to manage commodity, currency, and freight risk with the speed, precision, and sophistication once reserved for the largest financial institutions. Backed by Andreessen Horowitz (a16z), Pillar is democratizing access to global financial markets and leveling the playing field for businesses navigating an increasingly volatile world. To learn more, visit www.pillarhq.com.

About Kalshi

Founded in 2018, Kalshi is the world’s next-generation financial exchange. Prediction markets provide accurate, real-time information on the likelihood of events, making humanity more informed about the future. As the first regulated exchange for events, Kalshi is credited with legalizing and establishing prediction markets as a financial asset class. It’s the leading safe and regulated platform, trusted by millions of people and a growing number of institutions in America. To learn more about Kalshi, visit www.kalshi.com.

About Susquehanna Predictions

Susquehanna Predictions is part of the Susquehanna International Group of Companies (the “Susquehanna Group”), which was formed in 1987, and is one of the largest proprietary trading firms in the world. Fueled by an integration of trading, technology, and quantitative research, the Susquehanna Group has forged a collaborative culture with over 3,500 employees located in more than 17 offices around the world. While trading remains at the core of its business, the Susquehanna Group is also at the forefront of innovation in institutional risk management, global private equity, sports analytics, and prediction markets.

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